In the second installment of the 2010-preview series, we’re going to take a look at how 2009 went and how 2010 will look in South America.
As always, when you think football, you think Brazil. The five-time World Cup winners had a relatively normal 2009 which was capped with a come-from-behind victory over the United States in the Confederations Cup. It also marked the return of a legend of Brazilian football, Ronaldo, who moved to Corinthians after training with Flamengo. The year ended with an announcement that Ronaldo would be joined at the club by former Real Madrid and Brazilian national team peer, Roberto Carlos.
Internationally it was a fine year for the Brazilians, made all the sweeter thanks to Maradona’s complications in qualifying Argentina for South Africa and the fact that Brazil completed their qualification back in September after a 3-1 pounding of Maradona’s team.
In the league Flamengo, spear-headed by Adriano (formerly of Internazionale) and Kleberson (formerly of Manchester United) took home the title in style and inspired fans to celebrate, all while giving the most opportune moment to rob a bank! During the wild celebrations of the Flamengo supporters, bandits made off with 10 million reals (close to six million Euros), a heist that would make Henry Hill and Jimmy Conway proud. Corinthians meanwhile, who graciously took in Ronaldo, failed to work wonders and ultimately ended the season in 10th place, with qualification to the Copa Libertadores a consolation prize for their performance in the Brazilian Cup.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
As always Brazil are being billed as an easy guess for World Champions, but they have a long way to go after being drawn in a group with former territorial rulers: Portugal, Ivory Coast and North Korea. Having been drawn with Portugal and North Korea in the 1966 World Cup won’t serve as a good omen for the Brazilians, as it was a tournament where Brazil crashed out in the group stage. Another factor to take into consideration is Dunga’s refusal to call up bulky hitman Adriano to the squad on a regular basis. Granted, Luis Fabiano has done a fantastic job putting away goals, but surely Adriano’s contribution would not hurt Brazil’s aspirations in the hunt of a sixth World Cup. With qualification from the group stage, it is likely that Brazil will face a familiar foe in Chile, whom they beat both home and away during the qualification process.
In the league, it will likely be Flamengo who will be taking home a second consecutive league trophy. Corinthians, despite boasting Ronaldo and Roberto Carlos, don’t have the depth to compete, as shown by their 10th place finish in 2009. In addition, Internacional, who finished runners-up, will provide the sternest competition but likely fall short after basically giving away their power forward Kardec to Benfica for the low cost of 2.3 million Euros.
Up next in our trek of South America is the land that shouldn’t be crying for anybody, but should have plenty of people crying for it: Argentina. 2009 was… well, to sum up, it was pretty bad by Argentine standards. Their road to the FIFA World Cup seemed more like the Red Sea and neither Maradona nor Messi seemed at times to be the Moses that could part it. In fact, Argentina sunk as low as to give up a record-tying biggest defeat, a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Bolivia. Now, in case you’re not familiar with Bolivia’s quality, which you shouldn’t be because it doesn’t exist, allow me to put that into perspective: Bolivia finished second to last in the qualifying group. Add to that Argentina barely beating Peru, who finished last, and drawing in the other encounter with the Peruvians, and the stage was set for all sorts of failure.
This was further evidence of why, in my books at least, Messi shouldn’t be mentioned in the same category of players with Maradona. Messi falls flat on the international stage, perhaps an inability of his to adapt to constantly changing teammates – or maybe it’s the pressure of really having to live up to the title of being the next Maradona that gets to him. Either way you look at it, whenever you find Messi in a light-blue and white uniform, he’s not nearly as fear-inducing as when he’s surrounded by Iniesta and Xavi.
Looking at the league, once again things weren’t that impressive. Banfield managed to take home the league title for the first time in their history. That’s nice and all, but the fact is, no players are really making a buzz in Argentina. Perhaps Europe has found all the Argentine gems, but there must be cause for alarm when one of your top clubs, River Plate, is still fielding players like Ariel Ortega and Facundo Quiroga! There’s no new Messis being talked about, or the next Javier Zanetti, or the splitting image of Riquelme. If Argentina want to save themselves from further embarrassment on the world stage they must begin to re-cultivate their youth system and, just as importantly, find an actual coach for their team.
Maradona is as controversial as Jose Mourinho, but there’s a distinctive lack of class emanating from Maradona. Perhaps that’s to be expected of a former drug abuser, but as coach of a national team you really can’t go around saying things like, “Suck it and keep on sucking it.” Especially when you’re answering critics who for the most part are dead-on and right to be looking on in complete horror as Argentina slowly loses its status as a force to be messed with on the world stage. Plus, Maradona has made his conflicts with the media very personal, and while Mourinho is guilty of the same on a daily basis, Mourinho is capable of using it to his advantage and relieving the stress that is put on his players. Maradona on the other hand doesn’t do such a good job of that and leaves his team open to the media’s attacks.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Well. As far as the league, you may as well take Tom Smykowski’s (of Office Space) approach and set out a jump-to-conclusions map with the names of the Argentine teams written on it. That will probably give you a better guess of who will win the thing better than any analysis or statistical data research that I (or anyone else for that matter) might give you. Having gone through the hassle of doing this so you don’t have to, I’ve got your winner. It’s Gimnasia who will win the 2010 edition, following in the steps of Banfield and winning it for the first time in their club history with the bolstering addition of Jose Vizcarra from Rosario Central being too much for Facundo Quiroga of River Plate to handle.
As far as the World Cup. Argentina don’t even deserve to be there, and should’ve taken the noble route of giving up their right to play in South Africa. However, wouldn’t you know it – Argentina got an easy group to walk out of. Nigeria is hardly a threat, despite their continental advantage, and should be a walk in the park for the Argentines. Greece? As explained in the European edition of this series, Greece have taken the Danish approach to winning and followed it up by being sub-par. As for South Korea? Please don’t get me started!
And what better consolation to having an easier group than the possibility of an even easier second-round match-up, which could quite possibly pin the most overrated South American team up against the most overrated European team – the French? Now, with the likelihood being that Mexico will be the ‘on-paper’ favorites to go up against Argentina, we all know what the result tends to be when these two teams face each other. Queue a wonder goal from a player who plays a bit-part in the team and Argentina can consider themselves bound for the quarter-finals on no merit of their own.
Moving onwards we go to Chile. For Chile 2009 was a magical year since it marked the first time in over 10 years that they have been able to qualify for the World Cup, and doing so in impressive fashion by finishing second in the CONMEBOL qualification group. In the league, we can break that into two sections: the Clausura and the Apertura. However the Clausura is quite meaningless since the winner only gains entry into the rather hollow Copa Sudamericana so we’ll give preference to the Apertura.
The Apertura championship was won by Colo Colo, which is one of the only… scratch that. They’re the only recognizable Chilean team, partly because they are responsible for a majority of the Chilean national team that happens to be formed domestically, and they are also the main exporters to Europe from Chile. Having said that, let’s not kid ourselves. No one really knows who the hell anyone on the team is. You’ve got your random South American Diego and Jorge; in essence they’re all pretty much as good or as bad as each other, based on the fact that there are very few scouting reports available for their players. One other notable fact is the recent transfer of Humberto Suazo to Real Zaragoza, though to be honest, that move materialized mainly because he happened to be playing in the Mexican league where it’s a tad easier to get noticed by the European nations.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
In the league it’s anyone’s guess, mainly because they go by the cup format of deciding the ultimate champion; a format which is outdated and should be changed in order to gain street cred. As long as this is the case, don’t expect the Chilean team to overtake the other South American leagues in terms of talent and/or TV viewers.
In the World Cup, Chile has been fortunate enough to be up against Honduras and Switzerland, and luckily enough, face Spain last. Honduras should be an easy enough win, while the Swiss will ultimately prove to be too inexperienced to deal with the seasoned Chilean veterans who play in European competition such as Contreras, Tello and Alexis Sanchez. They will undoubtedly be happy with just being at the World Cup, so with the possibility of exaggerated celebrations at qualification from an easy group will be a dismantling at the hands of either Brazil or Portugal.
While Chile do possess within their team experienced players, they don’t exhibit the same talent and discipline that Brazil and Portugal have accumulated over the years. And even in terms of experience, that is still a department where they are inferior. Sure, they could be worthy of an upset, but given the fact that they lost 3-0 to Brazil at home in the qualification and 4-2 away, don’t expect a continental change of scenery to provide enough of a variable for an unlikely defiance of the laws of probability (or in this case, damn-near certainty).
Last on the list comes Uruguay, whom I’ve decided to analyze ahead of Paraguay since they have a better league. The Uruguayans just barely waltzed into the World Cup, finishing in the playoff spot in the CONMEBOL grouping, and were only slightly better than their Costa Rican adversaries in the playoffs. That’s all the more shocking when you take into consideration that they’ve got players like Diego Forlan, Cristian Rodriguez and Luis Suarez; which is as good an attacking trio as you’ll find in South America, on paper at least.
In the league, unlike Chile, the teams are somewhat heard of. Just about everyone has heard of Penarol, especially since being named by IFFHS as the best South American team of the 20th century, which is no easy feat when you look at teams like Santos, Corinthians, River Plate (Argentina) and Boca Juniors. Penarol have taken a massive hit in recent years though and finished the 2008-2009 season in seventh place. Nacional were the victors of the Apertura after beating Danubio in a playoff by a slim 2-1 victory.
The Clausura was won by another fairly well-known Uruguayan team, Defensor Sporting – not to be confused with Sporting Clube de Portugal, Sporting Gijon or even Sporting Cristal. It should be noted that Danubio seemingly self-destructed in the second competition, finishing in tenth position with a 4-3-7 record. Like Chile, though, most of the players are virtual unknowns, although instead of Diegos and Jorges you’ve got Alvaros, Sergios and Alejandros. The better known players would likely be Marcelo Sosa, who had a brief and unsuccessful spell through Europe; Alvaro Recoba who just recently joined Danubio; and to a lesser extent Gonzalo Barreto, who only featured in seven league appearances before being bought by Lazio.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
The league will be a fierce competition, but look for Danubio to run away with it if Alvaro Recoba receives good service and finds his scoring boots. Defensor Sporting will also be another team to watch after an impressive performance in the last edition of the Copa Libertadores where they reached the quarter finals.
As for that little vacation in South Africa? Chances are Uruguay already have their return flights booked in advance in anticipation of going out in the group stage, as they did in 2002. They were drawn into a tough group with France, Mexico and hosts South Africa. Their game with France is just about a foregone conclusion in favor of the French. Their game with the hosts will be the game where they will have the biggest chance to gain anything, but surely not easily given the home advantage that Bafana Bafana will enjoy.
As for Mexico? Uruguay just barely beat Costa Rica, the lightweights of Mexico’s group, and although in terms of on-the-pitch quality Uruguay can go toe-to-toe with Mexico, their playoff performance against Costa Rica doesn’t leave much room for optimism in relation to their encounter with the Mexicans. If they manage a tie against Mexico and a win against South Africa, that really leaves things open in the group. If so, provided the other results go how the FIFA rankings (which should never, ever be consulted for deciding results) dictate, then Uruguay will be doing a lot of long division and algebraic equations in hopes of qualifying out of the group phase. However, they’ll likely face an Argentina squad which despite being at its lowest point in decades, will still be able to sweep Uruguay aside. In the event that they encounter one of the other three teams from Group A, the Uruguayans will stand a decent chance at making the quarters, though this is a highly unlikely scenario, as is their qualification in the first place.
And we’ll conclude the South American version of this series with a brief look at Paraguay, the other South American nation to qualify…
Paraguay will likely qualify for the second phase of the World Cup, with their main threat to the second place behind Italy being Slovakia. In terms of talent, they are pretty evenly matched, with Paraguay having a slight upper-hand. Despite boasting defenders with European experience in Skrtel and Marek Cech, expect for the lethal combination of Oscar Cardozo and Roque Santa Cruz to be too much to handle for the Slovakians. This is especially true with Cardozo, given his impressive goal-scoring spree for Benfica, which has left him as a prime candidate for the European Golden Boot award.
Looking beyond the group stage, Paraguay will almost certainly be up against a monstrous hurdle called Holland. Unless the Paraguayans bring along a drug cartel to help the Dutch feel as if they’re in Amsterdam’s red-light district, expect for Holland to win the match without much of a scare. Chance of Progression: 80%
Paulo Pincaro is an up and coming football analyst who previously wrote for the LusoAmericano newspaper based in Newark, New Jersey and can be contacted via email at: PauloPincaro@gmail.com
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