World Cup fever is now firmly in the air around us. According to Chappers Premier League Podcast’s own Roy Meredith, 5% of everyone who has ever lived in human history is estimated to have watched the 2006 World Cup Final.
With that in mind, here’s my list of 32-1 based on how far I think each side is likely to go. Why do it? So that we can all laugh at how terrible I am, and about how, even as I come to know more and more about the game, I still cannot predict a single darn thing right… oh wait, yes I can. Now ignore all the other predictions I got wrong an we can move on to sorting every finalist from 32-1.
Group 1: Scotland’s Yard: (Not getting out of the group)
Did you know that Scotland is 0 for 8 in advancing to the knockout stage of the World Cup? That’s a record as nasty as Glasgow on New Year’s Eve (which, sadly, I have experienced). While George Burley proved to be a one man Hadrian’s Wall for Scotland’s participation in this finals, there are still some teams, alas, that we can bank on to make a three match cameo at the world’s biggest party.
32. New Zealand – I said to a friend, “I think if New Zealand played North Korea ten times, North Korea would get more points.” He responded, “well it’s a safe theory insofar as they will never play each other in a meaningful match.” A fair point. Congratulations for qualifying New Zealand, good luck holding off Vanuata for that half qualification spot in your region for next time…
31. North Korea – One of the all-time great World Cup stories was their last tournament appearance in 1966. Now, we all just hope their leader doesn’t do something that destroys the world as we know it. While that may motivate South Korean players to push harder to earn a military exemption by lifting the World Cup, it means that it is unlikely that their team will even enjoy any underdog sympathy through the tournament. Sharing a group with Ivory Coast, Portugal and Brazil is also a problem. I’m sure that Lucio has this game circled on his calendar as the one where he can run all the way up the field with the ball and shoot without getting into trouble.
30. Japan – While they boast a couple of nifty players, like Keisuke Honda of CSKA Moscow, their performances have generally been uninspiring and there’s just too much quality in Denmark, Cameroon and Holland to see them getting enough points to go through.
29. Honduras – Honduras are ahead of Japan on my list only because the prospect of facing Chile and Switzerland provides an easier chance to sneak in than Japan possesses. Honduras has some nice attacking players with some speed and flair, but they are generally not well organized over 90 minutes, concede possession too easily for this level and can be outsized and outmuscled by superior athletes. Not to mention that Spain is an automatic dropped 3 points. I suspect that Honduras will go home with 0. Given the reaction when Jonathan Bornstein’s late goal against Costa Rica put Honduras in the finals in the last minute of the last match, I doubt they’ll be too disturbed by it either. By the way, make sure that you click on that link if you haven’t seen it before. That is the glory of the World Cup right there. Even as I write a column where I minimize their chances of going forward, I will be pulling for them all the way. As much as we have spent time mentioning what a neglected part of the world Africa is for this tournament, Central America is also quite neglected, and full of many beautiful places and people.
… and that’s actually as far as I’d want to go in guaranteeing teams you will not see past the knockout stage. At least in print. I actually bet someone $20 France is not getting out of their group. So in a way, I guess if I had guts France would be down here too. But I can see a scenario where France goes through, I just don’t think that they will. At any rate, the original point of this paragraph was if you look back at Italia ‘90, you’d see that the entirety of Pot 4 were massively long odds to get out of the group… now, Cameroon actually did get out of their group due to one of the most stunning upsets in the history of sport, but before the tournament started, it would have been agreed that 1/4th of the tournament was definitely not going anywhere. The list above is 1/8th of the tournament. 20 years later we are talking about fewer teams being definite outs amongst a larger field of teams in the finals. Of which only really two of the four teams mentioned above seem as completely overmatched as, say, the United States was in 1990.
Group 2: The “Signs Point to No” Group:
28. South Africa Yes, I’ve heard about Invictus, and I like Steven Pineaar. I think that Teko Modise is a nice player as well. I know that every host has advanced to the knockout stages, and I know that the fans are behind this team and shout “Booth” every time their lanky, hard-working center-back touches the ball in a way that could be straight out of an American sports cliché. I even saw how well they played against Spain last summer. For me, they are in the wrong group against the wrong teams. This team needed a group where they could catch some breaks and maybe the top team would be on cruise control and would lose some focus… not going to happen. Uruguay and Mexico fought hard to get here. France had to cheat to get here. I see this going badly for the hosts on the field. Still, history is on their side. I’d love to be wrong on this one, and luckily, I am almost always wrong.
27. South Korea – It speaks to the quality of this tournament that South Korea is all the way down here. South Korea has some very problematic match-ups in their group. I know that everyone is calling Group H the “Group of Death,” but if I were South Korea, I would gladly change places with my neighbors to the North. I have a feeling South Korea would be more dangerous against teams that are more open and attacking sides and could pose a threat to Ivory Coast and Portugal. I have a feeling that Greece and Nigeria are made of too stern stuff in the middle of the field for South Korea to play through them, and I don’t see them keeping pace with Argentina, or being strong enough in the back that the fact that Argentina is seemingly playing without fullbacks will make a difference.
26. Australia – ESPN the Magazine’s World Cup Preview has Australia finishing second in their group ahead of Serbia and Ghana. I have a very strong feeling that this prediction is over-drawing upon hindsight as well as a (quite understandable) fixation on the abilities of Tim Cahill and Mark Schwarzer, and not enough attention to the weakness of the supporting cast.
25. Algeria – Only the weakness of the group makes me hesitant to put Algeria here. Put them in the place of either spots occupied by the Koreas or even Australia, and they may end up in “Scotland’s Yard.” As it is, they have what appears to be the most open battle for the second spot in the whole tournament… except…
24. Slovenia – I think that many are overreacting to two factors. Factor one: the loss of Charlie Davies and the injury to Oguchi Onyewu of the USA. Factor two: Slovenia’s triumph over Russia in the playoff to make the World Cup. The injuries do not strike at the heart of the United States nearly as much as some have forecasted, and while an impressive win by Slovenia, it is too easy to take their victory and turn it into something more than it was. Yes, it was a massive win, but they went through on the away goals rule, hardly storming into the tournament as conquerors.
23. Slovakia – If not for the presence of New Zealand in their group, they would surely have made “Scotland Yard.” Now they only need the result against New Zealand and some luck to get through. I still don’t see the luck part happening.
Group 3: The France ‘02/Portugal ‘02 “Didn’t a lot of people say you would win the tournament and you didn’t even make the knockout phase?” Group
22. France - Raymond Domenech is hated for how he plays. He’s like Dunga without the winning matches part. France looked pretty bad in qualifying. They should have been knocked out by Ireland. They had a World Cup rematch in Euro 2008 with Italy that looked more like a lethargy contest… and they lost… insofar as losing means being more lethargic. At this point I have decided to commit to the view that people are picking them out of their group on the blue shirts. I assure you, Uruguay and Mexico are a far sight better than Ireland, and the other team in the group just happens to be the host nation. And let’s face it, they hardly set the world on fire making the final in ‘06. You can see in that what you want. You can see that as a sign that they are good enough to stumble their way back to the final or as a sign that this is a great big “what happened to those guys?” waiting to happen. I’ve made my choice.
21. Portugal – Another team that has looked all over the place not only in qualifying but also in their most recent major tournament. Even when Scolari was still managing Portugal, they got absolutely handled by Germany in the knockout phase of Euro 2008. Queiroz has helmed a very unsteady ship, complete with a recent 0-0 draw against African minnow Cape Verde recently. Are they better than Brazil? No chance. Better than Ivory Coast? Maybe. Do they have any intangibles that go by a name other than Ronaldo in their favor? Not so much.
Group 4: The “Please God, don’t let them out of the group!” Group
20. Switzerland – It sometimes still haunts my dreams. The worst match ever played: Ukraine-Switzerland in World Cup ‘06. Wow. 7 shots on target in 120 minutes, and if memory serves, it took three penalty tries for anyone to get another shot on target after that. This is a solid team with some decent players, but I cannot help but think about that match and remember that they cannot score, and God help us if they were to sneak in. All I can say is thank God that if they got through there’s no chance they could play…
19. Greece – Everyone knows Greece. Shut up shop. Score on a free kick or the counter… or when everyone’s fallen asleep. As dire as their style of play is, it is worth saying to their credit, the 2004 European Champions did beat the best team in the tournament (Czech Republic), the defending World and European Champions (France), and the tournament hosts (Portugal) on both the first and last day of the tournament. They will be a massive thorn in the side until they go out. They will not be entertaining.
Group 5: The “I Guess I’m not on the Africa bandwagon” Group:
18. Cameroon – Switzerland with a worse disciplinary record and a weaker defense. The one difference is that they do have one World-class player up top, Samuel Eto’o. If he can shine, he may be enough to carry Cameroon into the knockout round. I have a strong feeling that both Holland and Denmark will be too much for them.
17. Ghana - Michael Essien. Sigh. This is still a very strong team straight up the middle even without Essien. I can see them getting by either Serbia or Germany, I can even see them getting by both. But I can see the other two getting through slightly more.
ROUND OF 16:
16. Uruguay - The team that first won it all has qualified out of the toughest region in the world. Suarez and Forlan are lethal up top, and Forlan is fresh off a Europa League triumph that justifies his place as a real match-changing player at the highest level.
15. Ivory Coast – The Ivory Coast is an eclectic mix of world-class talent and real vulnerabilities. Didier Drogba continues to be one of the world’s great attacking menaces, and the world will be watching to see if his team can keep it close enough for him to make the difference. A potential first knockout round match with Spain limits what they seem likely to accomplish.
14. Denmark - I really like this Denmark team. They have a very strong “sum is greater than the parts” feel to them that can really matter when you are being tested in the fire of World Cup play. They have experience up front and in the goal, but the side also has some youthful exuberance.
13. Nigeria - A much-needed managerial change at the last minute brings promise to a Super Eagle side whose talent is much greater than their record. This team is formidable on paper. Yakubu, Chinedu Obasi of TSG Hoffenheim, Fulham’s Dickson Etuhu, Chelsea’s John Obi Mikel, Joseph Yobo and Taiwo in the back. Vincent Enyeama in the net. If you put them in France kits, everyone would be going crazy over them.
12. Chile - If you hate Greece and Switzerland, then you will love Chile. They do nothing but attack all the time. And with the players they have up top, why not? Marcelo Bielsa loves to throw as many as seven men forward into the attack and is not afraid of going unconventional tactical routes in order to get his opponents in unfamiliar and uncomfortable playing patterns. Definitely one of the teams to watch for the neutral. A second place finish might mean Brazil in the Round of 16. And Dunga has seen all these tricks already.
11. United States – I was really down on the United States for a long while. I bought the Slovenia threat. I bought the injury worries. But you know what I buy most of all? Clint Dempsey being the angriest, most depressed “Third Place Player of the Tournament” of any international competition in history. Something happened in that final against Brazil, to my mind. Donovan and Dempsey really had it click just what it takes and what it means to lead your team to the top. Yes, the Confederations Cup is no World Cup, but that’s not the point. The point is that what the USA has seemed to be most naive about is that there World Cup success rises and falls because they don’t do what is necessary to develop their side to be consistently a team that gets out of the group phase. What Dempsey has learned at Fulham, and Donovan at Everton, is that they need to be at their best always to truly be world class. I really think they have taken it up a notch. My biggest worry for this side is their tendency to pick up red cards as well as the relatively poor reactions from Bob Bradley when the other team makes a move in the second half against his side.
10. Serbia - I think this team looks pretty solid. Nemanja Vidic and Nevan Subotic anchor a back line that also includes Chelsea standout Branislav Ivanovich. They can defend and they can hold the ball. Two questions: 1. Can they score? 2. Can Vidic stay healthy? Want to make me angry? Say something like, “Subotic wouldn’t be first choice if he played for USA.” I’m trying hard not to look in the direction of one Sean Wheelock.
9. Italy - France with slightly more in the tank, an easier group and a great coach. Nevertheless, my projected draw has them getting Holland in the Round of 16. Italy will try to park the bus, but that bus is awfully decrepit at this point.
QUARTERFINALISTS:
8. Mexico - Mexico drew a favorable group. They are organized, experienced, and have been to the knockout rounds the last two times around. I have them beating Nigeria. I think that their composure under Aguirre as well as their flair and possession could get them to the quarterfinals. Their most serious challenge is against teams whose physicality can be imposing on their style of play. We see it when they play the USA and we saw it again in the England friendly.
7. Argentina - What can be said about Maradonna that hasn’t been said already? I don’t know, but I’ve got $20 that says he’ll invent whatever it is so that we can pay more attention to him during the tournament (I might need to make back that France money I mentioned above). He’s not a great manager, we know that Messi can be contained/restrained and this no fullback thing is going to really kill him… like when he plays against the German fullbacks.
6. Paraguay - Despite the horrible shooting incident involving Salvador Cabanas, Paraguay are still strong up top and offer quality throughout the lineup. If Roque Santa Cruz can be the player that many think he can be, I can see Paraguay cruising to the top of their group (because I can also see Italy switching off long enough to find themselves second). The colorful kit of Chilavert is long gone, but the colorful play of this relatively small South American club remains.
5. Holland - They never seem to make it all the way, do they? How much do Robben and Schneider have in the tank after their runs to the Champions League finals? How fit is Robben van Persie? How old is their defense? These will be key questions for the Dutch, but I have a feeling that they will not truly be testing questions until deep into the tournament.
SEMIFINALISTS:
4. Germany - Am I big on Germany? Not really. No one ever seems to be keen on this generation of German sides, but they have been consistently good performers from 2002 to the present. I do not really expect that to change. There’s a good possibility they could draw the United States and then Argentina on their way to the semifinals. They, of course, had the easiest draw to a World Cup finals of all-time in 2002 when they had to defeat Paraguay, the United States and South Korea to make the final match of the tournament (and that was after opening the tournament 8-0 over Saudi Arabia).
3. England - Everyone is talking about Fabio Capello’s magic. More important for England is the fact that they have a team that seems to be coming together at the right time. Rooney is at the pinnacle of the game. Many of the supporting cast having career years mixed in with a bunch of veteran stars who have been to battle so many times before give a lot of good forward momentum. One potential drawback is that easy qualifying groups often seem to have an adverse effect on big favorites, so one wonders if England will be able to crank it up as the pressure rises. I suspect they will.
FINALS:
2. Spain - Go ahead. Say something bad about this team. The most talked about transfer of this summer is someone who had to come off the bench for Spain in their European Championship! They should play everyone off the park all the way to the final… but what if they have another game like they did against the United States last summer?
1. Brazil - They’re boring. They’re disciplined. They left the guy doing their Nike World Cup ads off the roster. Their manager wears Mauve Sport Jackets. Mauve, people! They counter-attack faster than anyone I have ever seen. They have Lucio, whom I may have mentioned before in my columns. Julio Cesar, by the way, is the best keeper in the world. They play for each other, and they put the team above all else. I just think that they have that little extra steel to them that can get them through the tournament ahead of all others. People will speak of redemption for Kaka after his year of Real Madrid, but he’s simply in a different role, and one he does extremely well.
The tournament will open with us wondering if Italy can defend the World Cup for the first time since Brazil back in 1958-1962. It may very well end with Brazil heading into Brazil 2014 with a chance to repeat for the second time.
But before that, South Africa hosts the world. I cannot wait.
Written By Steven
Maloney
(80 Posts) |
Loading ...