Lockouts, Strikes, and the Future of Soccer in America

Even as Major League Soccer faces its own labor uncertainty this coming season, it is the labor problems of other American sports leagues that could create a nice window of opportunity for soccer in the United States.

Quick history lesson. The American sports landscape used to be dominated by four major sports… until the NHL work stoppages of 1994-5 and 2004-5. With no World Series in 1994, Hockey had a chance to catch people’s attention, particularly after the national attention drawn by the New York Rangers winning their first Lord Stanley’s Cup in 40 years and the massive popularity of the NHL94 hockey video games. Suddenly, hockey was king in America’s most important TV market and kids no longer needed a rink and skates to love the game. Hockey squandered it all with two labor disputes. Apparently, in the sports entertainment business, it’s two strikes and you’re out.

Even though America is down to three major professional sports from four, the market for sports entertainment in America has never been so saturated. This is largely due to a myriad of minor sports plus the now-universal access to sporting events regardless of where the take place. Even though hockey has fallen from the top tier of American sports viewing, the void has already been filled.

Nevertheless, even in this over-saturated environment, soccer has crept into the American consciousness. It started with one UEFA Champions League midweek match on ESPN2. By the early 2000’s, Fox Sports started showing one Premier League match on its regional channels every week from the prior weekend (I miss the days when someone could tell me after the fact which match is the one worth watching). Then Fox Sports World became a standard option for cable for an extra fee. Then it became Fox Soccer Channel. Then GolTV started to come in and out of people’s lives. Then ESPN360. Now rumors of an ESPN3. To say nothing of matches on Spanish Language channels.

Now, South Africa 2010 is on the horizon. ESPN is advertising the event already, running flashy ads with U2 and voice overs that explicitly advertise that Martin Tyler will join the broadcast team. With Andy Gray a temporary ESPN analyst for its wall-to-wall coverage of Euro 2010, FIFA 10 is the new NHL94 to the point where ESPN seems to think the video games commentators are familiar to its viewing public.

The networks are upping their games. Which means that the advertisers cannot be far behind. What about Major League Soccer? The league’s future might permanently involve: (1) David Beckham once the World Cup is finished; (2) crazed, substantial fan bases in Seattle, Toronto, and Philadelphia; (3) great supporters in the other cities who support their club in smaller numbers; (4) true credibility with positive experiences from legitimate soccer stars like Freddie Ljungberg, Juan Pablo Angel, and Guillermo Barros Schellotto; (5) a rivalry with Mexico that probably cannot be tapped into enough.

But more than anything else, the MLS needs to exploit the fact that 2011 will have an end of season and playoffs while the NFL and the NBA have lockouts. With two of the three major professional sports in labor hell, MLS and leagues abroad will have a massive chance to lure viewers.

It will be an opportunity of huge proportions for networks, advertisers, and the professional leagues to increase their viewership. The first step is to realize that its coming. The second step is to realize that the choices that are made about how to take advantage of it can have real consequences on the status of soccer in America as a spectator sport.

I’m not talking about soccer becoming the sport in America – that won’t happen. But even 10-15% more viewers of MLS Game of the Week, 10-15% more people in the stands for MLS matches, or 10-15% more people DVRing UEFA Champions League matches would radically alter the base numbers for the sport, even in the short-term.

Soccer is growing in America, and it will continue to do so. How much and how fast will depend on the ability of the business side of the game to make decisions that, like a poaching forward, convert those rare opportunities into moments of triumph.

Written By Steven Maloney (58 Posts)

Steven Maloney is a regular contributor for Glorious Football. You can follow him on Twitter @stevenmaloney. Like Albert Camus, he fancies himself as having learned his morals "on the football pitch and in the theater." His football writing interests are in the institutional structures and strategies of world football, as well as the ways in which contemporary politics enters into the world of football and vice-versa. His most cherished memories of the game are of being in Holland for Euro 2000. In the interests of full disclosure, he supports Arsenal, the United States and DC United.