2010. The Chinese say it is the year of the tiger, but for just about the entire world, it is the year of the World Cup.
Hoping that China was confusing tigers with lions there is one nation that hopes 2010 will be the year of the lion… or three. England head into 2010 with yet another possibly catastrophic, overly optimistic mood about World Cup 2010. But for the first time in years, they have good reason. No longer do they have to worry about the unlikeliest of playboys in Sven-Göran Eriksson. More importantly, they have a coach who is tactically sound and motivational and who hasn’t won the World Cup – an important fact when taking into consideration that only Vittorio Pozzo managed the feat of winning two World Cups, both of them with his native Italy. They breezed through their qualification group and their players seem to be willing to take bullets for the cause of the team. All that is left is for Fabio Capello to stir the ingredients in the pot just right come this summer.
In the league we have the usual title contenders and the expected bottom table misfits, which wouldn’t have been complete without the ever-expected Liverpool flop. And what about the big spenders over in Manchester? Setting out to prove the writers of Soccernomics wrong in their theory that paying big money for players doesn’t translate to on the-pitch success, Manchester City sit in 5th place, 10 points behind Chelsea with 35 and surprisingly below Tottenham, who seem to have come out of nowhere this year and stolen all of Manchester City’s thunder. Everton, like their cross-town rivals, have been under-performing this year, though Everton spent a majority of the beginning of the season worrying about relegation. They seem to have balanced out a bit and now find themselves in 12th place.
Up at the front though, the race is as tight as ever with the top three teams separated by just four points; Manchester United at 43 points and Arsenal at 41 points are the threats to Chelsea’s season. Although, the main threat to Chelsea’s title dreams is the idea that for yet another year running, they seem to have found a hit-or-miss patch of form where they go games without seeing a win but then blister a team for a much-deserved win. Along with the African Nations Cup in Angola, which will deprive Chelsea of their main goal scoring exploiter, Didier Drogba, things are hardly as good as the first place position would have us believing things are at Chelsea.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Expect Chelsea to get through the Drogba situation just fine with Nicolas Anelka taking the role of goal scoring hero. Look for Arsenal and Manchester United to fight to the very end, but for Arsenal the race will end earlier with Wenger ruing Robin Van Persie’s lengthy time on the sideline. Sir Alex Ferguson will moan about the match officials while insisting that Manchester United have not lost that loving feeling as a result of losing Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid.
In The World Cup there are quite a few things to look for. Wayne Rooney will inevitably be forced to sit a game through a red-card or an injury, while Fabio Capello will be pinching himself trying to wake up from some morbid nightmare as the USA will give England a run for their money in their opening match – reminiscent of their encounter with Capello’s homeland of Italy in 2006.
Up next on our list we’ve got Spain and La Liga. 2009 was supposed to be like the hangover from EURO 2008 for the Spanish, who opened up last season still trying to figure out why they were smiling so widely. One treble later and it’s the Spanish who are on top of the world yet again, however hopeful that the hangover doesn’t affect their World Cup chances. Confidence is as high as ever as Spain finished in the coveted yet not-so-coveted first spot in the FIFA rankings for 2009. Playing host to the UEFA Champions League in 2010 at the Santiago Bernabéu will only be extra motivation for Real Madrid. Perhaps the hundreds of millions of Euros spent on players in the off-season would’ve been enough motivation regardless of where the final was to be played.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
Expect for Zlatan to go MIA when Barcelona find themselves up against good opposition in the Champions League. While the Swedish striker may have netted against Real Madrid earlier in the season, it still remains to be seen how he’ll do on the biggest club stage on the planet, much the way he failed to perform in the do or die matches for Juventus and Internazionale. Also look for the Barcelona-Madrid fight for the title to go to the depth. There’s been nearly no separation between them and Madrid recently failed to capitalize on a slip-up from Barcelona.
In the World Cup. Well. We’re talking about Spain here. Despite an impressive EURO 2008, expect them to make the quarters at best. If they do manage to break into the semis, look for them to go all the way and hoist the cup for the first time in their history of underachieving. They should finish a very easy and comfortable first in their group, but with Portugal and Brazil looming just beyond that it will be a difficult task to get past either of the two teams and still have gas left for the quarter-finals (remember World Cup 2006 anybody?).
Then we arrive to the homeland of catenaccio, Italia. 2009 was a rather weird year in Italy. The Champions League was a complete failure for the Italians and the league was settled quite matter-of-factly by Jose Mourinho’s men at the San Siro. Pretty much the only excitement on offer was the now commonplace Mourinho comments to the media, which included classics like, “I think that question is gay,” and “I have heard of Bayern Monaco (Munich) and the Monaco GP, the Tibetan Monaco (Monk), and the Principality of Monaco. I have not heard of any others.”
WHAT TO EXPECT:
In Serie A, expect Internazionale to win the Scudetto once again without much fuss on the pitch but with plenty verbal showdowns off it. Juve will inevitably fire their coach sometime soon and Milan will make the mistake of thinking Leonardo and the team in general is in good shape because of good results against their main rivals.
In the Champions League, expect the unexpected. AC Milan will have headaches in their match-up against Manchester United, and Fiorentina will be up against a Bayern Munich team that is hit-or-miss but is sure to have inner quarrels among the team. Meanwhile, Inter will be dealt the tough task of beating Mourinho’s former team, Chelsea. This one should be a nail-biter, but part of me feels that Mourinho, knowing both the main players in Chelsea’s lineup as well as having a good feel for Ancelotti’s tactical game play, should have the upper hand – enough to at least see his Inter team gallop into the quarters of the competition.
In the World Cup? Don’t expect a repeat of 06′ and a record-tying fifth title for the Azzurri. They may have a World Cup winning coach on the sideline but they’re missing the players capable of pulling a repeat. The European giants are already considering giving spots to Francesco Totti and Luca Toni. Totti I can see as a viable option given his impressive goal haul for Roma this season, but Luca Toni? Have we so soon forgotten his miserable World Cup in 2006? Before the tournament I was expecting to see Luca Toni break the record of goals scored in a single competition (13, set by Just Fontaine of France), but ultimately he ended his miserable run with just two goals, both against a defensively weak Ukrainian team.
Now we come to the corruption capital of the world, Ital… I mean Germany! Despite making it all the way to the final of EURO 2008, only losing out to a brilliant Spanish team, 2009 did not go as smoothly as 2008 in Deutschland. News broke of the largest footballing scandal in history with players being put at the center of the attention for accepting to score own goals and help insure their own team’s defeat in order to pay back gambling debts. The Bundesliga continues to be an unpredictable little systematic gauntlet of teams with no team seeming to be able to get it even remotely right two years in a row, and for all the money that Bayern Munich have spent, the results haven’t been worth paying for.
As interest in players like Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger has waned we’ve been left without too much to really care about in Germany, outside of the wienerschnitzels and Franck Ribery. How ironic. The biggest interest footballing-wise in Germany is a Frenchman. Somewhere in dictatorial afterlife Napoleon is laughing at Hitler I’m sure. Sure there are players like Edin Dzeko and more recently new-league addition Arjen Robben. However with Edin Dzeko being rumored to be leaving in the near future with Europe’s best tracking him, Arjen Robben being as prone to injury as the Middle East is to war and the recent revelation that Franck Ribery is all set to leave Munich (with reports indicating Madrid have already penned a deal with Munich for his transfer), one wonders what is left to marvel at.
WHAT TO EXPECT: Expect a hollow qualification in the World Cup. Being in one of the harder groups, Germany will have to bring their A spiel in order to have a chance at the last 16. In club terms: Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen look set to become the fourth different winner of the competition in as many years, though Bayern Munich could spoil the party as they sit just two points outside of first place. In European competition, despite Barcelona’s not looking worthy of another treble year, expect the Catalans to breeze past Stuttgart while Fiorentina will provide a stern test for Munich.
Traveling west we come to the exporters of Champagne and surrender, France. 2009 was a lot like it was for the Germans: quiet. And when it wasn’t quiet it wasn’t good noise that was breaking the silence. Many are still looking on in horror as they see Raymond Domenech continue to mismanage the national squad as France just narrowly made the bother of booking a ticket to South Africa worthwhile, which leads us to the other thing that broke the barrier of quiet. Yup, you guessed right, Thierry Henry’s handball pretty much guaranteed the French the title of Most Hated Team making an appearance at the 2010 World Cup, much to the relief of Portugal – who despite picking up the entertainment award in 06′ were not too popular come the end of the tournament.
WHAT TO EXPECT: There’s the outside possibility of a World Cup 2002-like first-round exit for the French in the World Cup, and aside from that there is very little to be hopeful about. The French teams still in European competition will be facing contrasting fates as Lyon take on Madrid and Bordeaux take on the much easier task of Olympiakos, but will have to face last year’s champion Barcelona in the quarter-final, if things go according to plan.
We then take an excursion to the land that Napoleon failed to conquer time and time again but that the French have been able to beat in international competition on every occasion, Portugal. 2009 on the international stage was similar to that of France’s. A lot of disappointment and nail-biting ultimately led to Portugal’s qualification for their fifth-straight international tournament in a row, after a win in Bosnia of all places. Still, many are skeptical about Carlos Queiroz’s capabilities even after securing qualification, and there were talks that the FPF, which oversees the national team’s operations, had contacted Jose Mourinho to replace Queiroz. Problems continue to loom with concerns over Deco’s age affecting his performances and a left-back spot without an owner, while up front some would still like to see a better all-out striker than recent Brazilian recruit, Liedson.
In Europe, things went just about as well as they could with Porto able to break into the last 16, but the 2009-2010 edition got off to a bad start as Sporting failed to secure the presence of two Portuguese teams in Europe after going out to Fiorentina on away goals. In the league Braga have shockingly emerged in pole-position at midseason to grab the league trophy with Benfica in hot pursuit.
WHAT TO EXPECT: Portugal will be hit-or-miss at the World Cup, that’s the only guarantee. If they hit, look for them to punch above their belts and into the quarters and possibly semis. (I won’t dare jinx anything and say finals or, God forbid, touching the trophy) In the league, despite Braga’s best chance ever to win the league look for an Angel DiMaria-inspired Benfica to take home their second league title of the new millennium.
I’m going to round up the in-depth analysis of Europe (and what a long one it was) with Holland. Holland have been in European obscurity ever since their European triumphs in the 90’s with the likes of Edgar Davids and Patrick Kluivert…. 2009 was no different, as Dutch outsiders AZ Alkmaar took home the league prize with Twente in hot pursuit and Ajax a distant third. Internationally, EURO 2008 hadn’t run them too well either, as they were downed by a surprise-packaged Russian team. There was consolation to be found in 2009 however, when the Dutch secured a place at World Cup 2010 with a 100% win record in the qualification process.
WHAT TO EXPECT: Well, given that they don’t have any teams in Champions League competition, not much. Twente will face stern competition for the Dutch title but expect Twente to squeeze it out under pressure. As for the World Cup…. optimism should be in the air! Holland should be able to get to the quarter-finals without breaking a sweat, barring mishap in their group or Italy coming second in theirs.
Looking at the rest of the European countries involved in World Cup 2010: (Sorry I won’t cover all of Europe for fear of arthritis in my hands!)
Denmark: After upsetting Portugal in the qualification group don’t look for Denmark to set the world alight in South Africa. Despite Bendtner’s prowess in front of goal they will still need to be weary of Japan and even Cameroon, to a certain extent. Chance of progression: 75%
Greece: Have a tricky group on their agenda. Despite Argentina’s recent underperformance they are still favorites to go through, while the second place is a toss-up between South Korea, Nigeria and Greece. Nigeria have the benefit of continental home advantage; South Korea will be fired up to show-up their northern neighbors; and Greece… Well, Greece will philosophize and meander until they are blue and white in the face. They’ve fallen from the grace of their EURO 2004 conquest and have returned to their placement among football’s minnows. Chance of Progression: 45%
Serbia: Have got to be ruing their luck at getting one of the hardest groups for the second World Cup in a row. Will need to defend deep and prey on counter attacks to do well. Chance of Progression: 50%
Slovakia: Will need to gain full points against Paraguay and hope that New Zealand don’t fare as well as their Oceania neighbors Australia did in 06′. Chance of Progression: 45%
Slovenia: Will be lucky to advance from the World Cup stage given the daunting tasks of USA and England but should try to aim for second place in the group. Chance of Progression: 25%
Switzerland: They just HAD to draw Spain and Chile, didn’t they? Chance of Progression: 25%
Paulo Pincaro is an up and coming football analyst who previously wrote for the LusoAmericano newspaper based in Newark, New Jersey and can be contacted via email at: PauloPincaro@gmail.com
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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Great analysis! Porto for Liga Sagres, though
Also Man U to drop from the top four, courtesy of CIty and Pool.
Porto have a lot of work to do, though. Jesualdo called five youngsters for the next game so it should be interesting how he uses them. I don’t see Porto being able to beat out Benfica, not this year, The Benfica that won the title however many years ago it was, was 3x worse than this team, with an incompetent coach, I don’t see them losing out in the long run, especially now with Kardec, who is a FANTASTIC striker, not adequate, not good, FANTASTIC.
As for Manchester United dropping. I don’t see that happening as long as Rooney is firing on all cylinders like he has been. I think Ferguson should opt to play Berbatov more, but it looks like he’s getting a case of the Nani’s. And as for Liverpool being responsible for trouncing United out of the top four… I have a sense of humor, so I’m going to rule that as a joke. Only slightly smaller a joke than the fact that Rafael still has a job!!